#Most populous countries in the world drivers#

The report highlights that a reduction in the fertility level results not only in a slower pace of population growth but also in an older population. By that time, most of the world’s population will be living in countries with relatively low levels of fertility, where women bear fewer than 2.1 children on average.

In 2045-2050, it is expected that slightly less than a third of the world s population will live in countries with fertility in this range. Intermediate-fertility countries are found in many regions, with the largest being India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Mexico and the Philippines. The report said that in 2010-2015, around 46 % of the world’s population lived in intermediate-fertility countries, where women have on average between 2.1 and 5 births over a lifetime. The countries projected to be net senders of more than 100,000 migrants annually include India, Bangladesh, China, Pakistan and Indonesia. Between 20, the top net receivers of international migrants (more than 100,000 annually) are projected to be the US, Germany, Canada, UK, Australia and Russia.

#Most populous countries in the world drivers#

Consequently, the population of Nigeria, currently the world s 7th largest, is projected to surpass that of the US and become the third largest country in the world shortly before 2050.įurther, large and persistent economic and demographic asymmetries between countries are likely to remain key drivers of international migration for the foreseeable future. Ten countries are expected to account collectively for more than half of the world s projected population increase over the period 2017-2050: India, Nigeria, Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the United States, Uganda, Indonesia and Egypt.Īmong the ten largest countries worldwide, Nigeria is growing the most rapidly. “With roughly 83 million people being added to the world s population every year, the upward trend in population size is expected to continue, even assuming that fertility levels will continue to decline, it said. The report said the current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. The under-five mortality rate will decline from 32.3 deaths under age five per 1,000 live births in 2025-2030 to 18.6 in 2045-2050. In India, life expectancy at birth will be 71 years in 2025-2030, growing to 74.2 years in 2045-2050. India’s population may eventually see a decline in the half century after 2050 to 1.51 billion by 2100 but it will still be the most populous country in the world.

After that, India s population is projected to continue growing for several decades to around 1.5 billion in 2030 and approaching 1.66 billion in 2050, while the population of China is projected to remain stable until the 2030s, after which it may begin a slow decline. The new estimates released here today said that in 2024, India and China are expected to have roughly a population of 1.44 billion each. In its 24th round of estimates released in 2015, it was projected that the population of India will surpass that of China’s by 2022. The 2017 Revision of World Population Prospects is the 25th round of official UN population estimates and projections.

“In roughly seven years, or around 2024, the population of India is expected to surpass that of China,” the report said. The World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said that currently China with 1.41 billion inhabitants and India with 1.34 billion remain the two most populous countries, comprising 19 and 18 % of the total global population. United Nations: India’s population could surpass that of China’s around 2024, two years later than previously estimated, and is projected to touch 1.5 billion in 2030, according to a UN forecast.